Fields are set for the 2015 Breeders Cup. For the next couple of days thoroughbred players behave like little kids before Christmas, waiting to see if Santa stuffs their stockings with Breeders’ Cup loot or a lump of Breeders’ Cup dung.
Phil’s recommendation for handicapping and betting the 2015 Breeders’ Cup races:
Nobody can give you wiser advice than yourself.
Marcus Tullius Cicero
We should have let them Eastern Bastards freeze in the dark.
Phil knows where he’s wagering this weekend and it ain’t HPI or OTB.
Every Indian outbreak that I have ever known has resulted from broken promises and broken treaties by the government.
Saturday, October 31 2015
Pick 6 $15,936.00
Super High Five $13,212.00
Super High Five $465.00
Golden Gate Fields
Pick 6 Jackpot $13,469.00
West Pick 5 $11,514.00
Pick 6 Jackpot $7,370.00
Super High Five $1,587.00
Super High Five Jackpot $28,705.00
Pick 6 Jackpot $2,441.00
Indiana Grand Race Course
Pick 6 $4,765.00
Pick 6 $1,192.00
Z-5 Super Hi-5 $448.00
Lone Star Park
Pick 6 Jackpot $3,465.00
Pick 6 $2,559.00
Pick 5 $1,735.00
Pick 6 Jackpot $14,421.00
Pick 5 $1,186.00
Pick 6 $100.00
Super High Five Jackpot $14,710.00
Phil has a question:
Can the Wilpons get their buddy Bernie Madoff a day pass to attend the games in New York.
My advice to you is not to inquire why or whither, but just enjoy your ice cream while it’s on your plate.
Broadcast live from Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky, this can’t miss event features 13 races over two days with purses totaling $24.5 million.
See the fastest thoroughbreds in the world televised live in the comfort of our Playbook Lounge!
Visit here for more information about Breeders’ Cup.
October 30, Post time 10:30 a.m. MST
October 31, Post time 9:00 a.m. MST*
*Northlands Park will open at 8:45 a.m. on October 31
Canadian Derby and British Columbia Derby winner Academic moves back to the distaff side on Saturday, but her task won’t be any easier as she’s facing older mares in the Maple Leaf at Woodbine on Saturday, October 31, 2015. Academic will be under the tutelage of Reade Baker with Justin Stein returning to the irons.
Politeness and civility are the best capital ever invested in business. Large stores, gilt signs, flaming advertisements, will all prove unavailing if you or your employees treat your patrons abruptly. The truth is, the more kind and liberal a man is, the more generous will be the patronage bestowed upon him.
P. T. Barnum
The 142nd running of the $2 million guaranteed Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (Grade I) will be run Saturday, May 7, 2016, and for the fourth consecutive year, a tiered point system in select races will determine who qualifies to America’s greatest race.
Race Track Date Points
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Keeneland Oct 31, 2015 20-8-4-2
Delta Downs Jackpot Delta Downs Nov 21, 2015 10-4-2-1
Remsen Aqueduct Nov 28, 2015 10-4-2-1
Kentucky Jockey Club Churchill Downs Nov 28, 2015 10-4-2-1
Los Alamitos Futurity Los Alamitos Race Course Dec 19, 2015 10-4-2-1
Jerome Aqueduct Jan 9, 2016 10-4-2-1
Sham Santa Anita Park Jan 16, 2016 10-4-2-1
Smarty Jones Oaklawn Park Jan 18, 2016 10-4-2-1
Holy Bull Gulfstream Park Jan 30, 2016 10-4-2-1
Withers Aqueduct Feb 13, 2016 10-4-2-1
Robert B. Lewis Santa Anita Park Feb 13, 2016 10-4-2-1
Southwest Oaklawn Park Feb 15, 2016 10-4-2-1
El Camino Real Derby Golden Gate Fields Feb 20, 2016 10-4-2-1
Fountain of Youth Gulfstream Park Feb 27, 2016 50-20-10-5
Risen Star Fair Grounds Feb 27, 2016 50-20-10-5
Gotham Aqueduct Mar 12, 2016 50-20-10-5
Tampa Bay Derby Tampa Bay Downs Mar 12, 2016 50-20-10-5
San Felipe Santa Anita Park Mar 12, 2016 50-20-10-5
Rebel Oaklawn Park Mar 19, 2016 50-20-10-5
Sunland Derby Sunland Park Mar 20, 2016 50-20-10-5
Spiral Turfway Park Mar 26, 2016 50-20-10-5
UAE Derby Meydan Racecourse Mar 26, 2016 100-40-20-10
Florida Derby Gulfstream Park Apr 2, 2016 100-40-20-10
Louisiana Derby Fair Grounds Apr 2, 2016 100-40-20-10
Wood Memorial Aqueduct Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Blue Grass Keeneland Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Santa Anita Derby Santa Anita Park Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Arkansas Derby Oaklawn Park Apr 16, 2016 100-40-20-10
Lexington Keeneland Apr 16, 2016 10-4-2-1
Phil has a question:
Does she mean watch as in what you do with a television or watch as in pound them if the odds are right.
The Breeder’s Cup features 13 evenly matched horse races, four Friday, the rest Saturday. It’s the evenly matched part that makes the task of looking for winners so difficult, because even though the losers pay the winners in the pari-mutuel form of gambling, you never get as much as you deserve after picking a winner from a gate full of near-equals.
Race Track Date Points
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Keeneland Oct 31, 2015 20-8-4-2
Delta Downs Princess Delta Downs Nov 21, 2015 10-4-2-1
Demoiselle Aqueduct Nov 28, 2015 10-4-2-1
Golden Rod Churchill Downs Nov 28, 2015 10-4-2-1
Starlet Los Alamitos Race Course Dec 12, 2015 10-4-2-1
Santa Ynez Santa Anita Park Jan 9, 2016 10-4-2-1
Busanda Aqueduct Jan 16, 2016 10-4-2-1
Silverbulletday Fair Grounds Jan 23, 2016 10-4-2-1
Forward Gal Gulfstream Park Jan 30, 2016 10-4-2-1
Martha Washington Oaklawn Park Feb 6, 2016 10-4-2-1
Las Virgenes Santa Anita Park Feb 6, 2016 10-4-2-1
UAE Oaks Meydan Racecourse Feb 25, 2016 50-20-10-5
Busher Aqueduct Feb 27, 2016 50-20-10-5
Davona Dale Gulfstream Park Feb 27, 2016 50-20-10-5
Rachel Alexandra Fair Grounds Feb 27, 2016 50-20-10-5
Santa Ysabel Santa Anita Park Mar 5, 2016 50-20-10-5
Honeybee Oaklawn Park Mar 12, 2016 50-20-10-5
Sunland Park Oaks Sunland Park Mar 20, 2016 50-20-10-5
Bourbonette Oaks Turfway Park Mar 26, 2016 50-20-10-5
Gulfstream Park Oaks Gulfstream Park Apr 2, 2016 100-40-20-10
Fair Grounds Oaks Fair Grounds Apr 2, 2016 100-40-20-10
Santa Anita Oaks Santa Anita Park Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Gazelle Aqueduct Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Ashland Keeneland Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Fantasy Oaklawn Park Apr 9, 2016 100-40-20-10
Beaumont Keeneland Apr 17, 2016 10-4-2-1
Breeders’ Cup Saturday Previews
Breeders’ Cup Friday Recaps
“We would like to run more racing days,” Kentucky Downs president Corey Johnsen said after the commission meeting. “But we also know we’re not in a vacuum. We need to work together with the other tracks. I think after September 2016 we’ll see if some of the different things we’ve tried will work or not.”
NY Times – Pedulla – Beholder, Expected to Challenge American Pharoah, Scratched From Breeders’ Cup
TwinSpires Blog – DeRosa – What Beholder’s scratch means for odds, handle, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic’s legacy
This Weekend’s Stakes
Lafayette Presented by Keeneland Select $100,000 3&up 7f Dirt
Awad Stake $100,000 2yo 8f Turf
Turnback the Alarm Handicap GIII $200,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 8.5f Dirt
Magnolia Stake $100,000 3&up Fillies & Mares State/Prov 8f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile GI $1,000,000 3&up 8f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Distaff GI $2,000,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 9f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf GI $1,000,000 2yo Fillies 8f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf GI $1,000,000 2yo Colts & Geldings 8f Turf
Bryan Station Stake $100,000 3yo 9f Turf
Hagyard Fayette Stake GII $200,000 3&up 9f Dirt
Marathon Stake GII $200,000 3&up 14f Dirt
Bold Ruler GIII $200,000 3&up 7f Dirt
Chelsey Flower Stake $100,000 2yo Fillies 8f Turf
Tri-State Futurity $50,000 2yo R 7f Dirt
Gold Cup $100,000 3&up State/Prov 8f Dirt
Gulfstream Park West
Cellars Shiraz Stake $75,000 3yo Fillies 8f Turf
Showing Up Stake $75,000 3yo 8f Turf
Indiana Grand Race Course
Frances Slocum Stake $150,000 3&up Fillies & Mares State/Prov 8.5f Dirt
Indiana Futurity $85,000 2yo State/Prov 8.32f Dirt
Miss Indiana Stake $85,000 2yo Fillies State/Prov 8.32f Dirt
Too Much Coffee Stake $150,000 3&up State/Prov 8.5f Dirt
Japan Racing Association
Artemis Stake GIII $504,000 2yo Fillies 8f Turf
Swan Stake GII $1,030,000 3&up 7f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Classic GI $5,000,000 3&up 10f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint GI $1,000,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 7f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf GI $2,000,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 9.5f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile GI $2,000,000 2yo Colts & Geldings 8.5f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies GI $2,000,000 2yo Fillies 8.5f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Mile GI $2,000,000 3&up 8f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Sprint GI $1,500,000 3&up 6f Dirt
Breeders’ Cup Turf GI $3,000,000 3&up 12f Turf
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint GI $1,000,000 3&up 5.5f Turf
Fort Springs $100,000 3yo Fillies 6f Dirt
Juvenile Dirt Sprint $100,000 2yo 6f Dirt
Perryville Stake $100,000 3yo 6f Dirt
Laurel Turf Cup (L) $100,000 3&up 12f Turf
Mahoning Valley Racecourse
Cardinal handicap $75,000 3&up State/Prov 6f Dirt
Emerald Necklace Stake $75,000 2yo Fillies State/Prov 6f Dirt
Maple Leaf Stake Can – III $150,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 10f AW
Pumpkin Pie Stake $100,000 3&up Fillies & Mares 6f Dirt
*Rags to Riches Stake $60,000 2yo Fillies 8f Dirt
*Street Sense Stake $60,000 2yo 8f Dirt
Golden Gate Fields
Pike Place Dancer $75,000 2yo Fillies 8f Turf
Japan Racing Association
Tenno Sho Autumn GI $2,721,000 3&up 10f Turf
A.T.B.A. Fall Sales Stake $35,000 2yo Colts & Geldings R 6f Dirt
A.T.B.A. Fall Sales Stake $35,000 2yo Fillies R 6f Dirt
Pennsylvania Hunt Cup $35,000 5&up 32f Turf
Princess Elizabeth Stake $250,000 2yo Fillies R 8.5f AW
New Mexico Classic Cup Derby Championship $140,000 3yo Colts & Geldings State/Prov 6f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Championship $140,000 3&up Fillies & Mares State/Prov 6f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Juvenile Championship $140,000 2yo Colts & Geldings State/Prov 6f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Lassie Championship $140,000 2yo Fillies State/Prov 6f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Oaks Championship $140,000 3yo Fillies State/Prov 6f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Peppers Pride Championship $170,000 3&up Fillies & Mares State/Prov 8f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Rocky Gulch Championship $180,000 3&up State/Prov 8f Dirt
New Mexico Classic Cup Sprint Championship $170,000 3&up State/Prov 6f Dirt
Veterans Stake $55,000 3&up 8.5f Dirt
Frost King Stake $125,000 2yo State/Prov 7f AW
Town and Country Farms’ Stopchargingmaria drifted out in the stretch, leading to a stewards’ inquiry and objection after the race. The stewards ruled there was insufficient evidence to change the order of finish.
Phil appreciates that the Keeneland stewards had enough laissez faire sense to leave the result on the track stand.
Liam’s Map is usually a front-runner, but he was stuck back in the pack before rallying to wear down pacesetter Lea. Red Vine was another 3 1/4 lengths back in third.
From the Derby Bar and Grill Newsletter
BY GLEN TODD
HASTINGS SEASON FINAL STATS
Sunday’s nine race card brought the end of the 2015 Live Racing season at Hastings Racecourse.
The season certainly ended on a high note with the wagering totaling $968,504.00 and that was the fourth best wagering day of the 2015 season.
In total we ran 404 races with a total of 2797 horses for an average of 6.92 horses per race which was slightly higher then 2014. There was a total of 360 overnight races and 44 stakes races.
The average daily payout of purses totaled $150,347.32 and a 53 day total of $7,968,408.00.
The average overnight purse was $14,440.00 per race in which $1533.00 was paid to BC Breds and $148.99 per race to 6-12 finishers.
The total handle for 53 days of racing was $29,760,481.91 and that was $3,825,065.00 ahead of the total for 53 days in 2014.
WINTERING PROGRAM A COMPLETE SUCCESS
The wintering program put in place in the fall of 2014 was a complete success as owners received a total of $246,000.00. So a total of 123 horses returning to race at Hastings who had made there last start at Hastings in 2014 and made their 1st start for claiming price of $4000.00 all received $2000.00.
That same program is back for 2016 as well.
Personally I would like thank all of the contributor’s to our newsletter throughout the season.
First of all to Lisa Thompson. Jackie Humber and Patti Tubbs who provided us with so many pictures from opening day of spring training right up to the very last race on Sunday. Thank you ladies for all of your great work.
To Richard Yates who provided all of us the daily wrap-up from Hastings and Richard you did a fantastic job for us all.
Mike Heads gave us the daily preview of the feature race each, Mike thanks a million.
Drew Forster and Mike Heads gave us the Derby picks each racing day and from what I was told Drew finished first for the season over all of the local handicappers.
Mike and Drew also produced the Handicappers Corner for season that could be found on the Derby Bar and Grill website each week.
A special thanks to all of you.
|Number of Horses||558||558||0||0%|
|Number of Trainers||86||86||0||0%|
|Number of Owners||349||366||17||5%|
|Number of Starters||2737||2797||60||2%|
|Average Start Per Horse||4.91||5.01||0.103||2%|
|Total Handle||$ 25,935,416||$ 29,760,482||$ 3,825,066||13%|
|Number of Races||404||404||0||0%|
|On track Handle||$ 6,856,403||$ 6,707,707||$ (148,696)||-2%|
|O-Nite Purses||$ 5,484,229||$ 5,198,408||$ (285,821)||-5%|
|Stake Race Totals||$ 2,389,000||$ 2,770,000||$ 381,000||14%|
|Total Purse Payouts||$ 7,873,229||$ 7,968,408||$ 95,179||1%|
|Average O/N Payout||$ 14,961||$ 14,440||$ (521)||-4%|
|BC Bred Bonus||$ 544,916||$ 552,003||$ 7,087||1%|
|6-12 Finishers||$ 215,964||$ 53,405||$ (162,559)||-304%|
|Ship N Win||$ 53,275||$ 38,833||$ (14,442.00)||-37%|
|Nomination Fees||$ 687,800||$ 725,650||$ 37,850.00||5%|
|Sponsorships||$ 133,000||$ 225,000||$ 92,000.00||41%|
|Avg Purse Payout/Daily||$ 145,800.00||$ 150,347.00||$ 4,547.00||3%|
|Avg Starters Stake Races||6.67||7||0.33||5%|
|Avg Starters per Race||6.77||6.92||0.15||2%|
If it’s free, it’s advice; if you pay for it, it’s counseling; if you can use either one, it’s a miracle.
EXCITING FREE BETS & BONUSES
BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM TOMORROW: Free $10 wager/5,000 points
To add to Breeders’ Cup excitement, Assiniboia Downs will give you a free $10 wagering voucher and 5,000 free Player Rewards points tomorrow. Just present your Player Rewards card at the horseshoe kiosk in the Clubhouse between noon and 3 p.m.
BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM SATURDAY: Free $10 wager/5,000 points
Receive a free $10 betting voucher and 5,000 Player Rewards points Saturday just by presenting your Player Rewards card at the horseshoe kiosk between noon and 3 p.m.
BETTING BONUSES TO CONTINUE IN NOVEMBER! Great news! Assiniboia Downs’ cash-back program continues right to the end of November. Which means all your bets throughout the Breeders’ Cup and onward could result in up to five per cent cash deposited into your account each Friday. See the bonus levels here.
|GROUP PLAY||You’re invited–Saturday morning 9:30 a.m.|
Margaret will add $5 to each $20 share
You’re invited to come down to the lower-level Finish Line banquet hall Saturday morning at 9:30 a.m. where the nine Breeders’ Cup races worth $20 million will be discussed and group tickets on pick-4s, pick-5 and pick-6 will be constructed. The biggest win at a Saturday morning session has been a pick-6 worth $10,000. The goal this Saturday is–with everyone’s input–to exceed this amount. Each of your $20 shares in the tickets will be topped up by an ASD contribution of $5. Refreshments served. Boxing glove rental available.
WEAR SOMETHING “HALLOWEENISH!”
|BETTING||Minimum bets as low as 20-cents. Play pick-6 for $1|
There will continue to be 60-cent pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s and triactors and 20-cent
Saturday it starts in race 6 and ends with the Classic
carry over from Friday to Saturday but Saturday will be a mandatory payout day for
with the Classic on Saturday
|THE BIGGEST BUZZ||Will the mare beat the colt?|
American Pharoah Oaklawn/Coady photo
Beholder Benoit photo
In the $5 million Classic Saturday, two-time champion mare Beholder will attempt to beat Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, something that the mare, Zenyatta, couldn’t do in 2010 when 3-year-old colt, Blame, held on to win the Classic (watch that race below). Honor Code is working brilliantly and may upset them both.
(FYI: The original Beholder was the fictional monster in Dungeons and Dragons.)
|WHO’S GONNA WIN?||“Rule” horses for those who care|
Enter your name into the draw at the Downs and at OTBs Saturday afternoon to win very handsome Breeders’ Cup merchandise collections. Don’t you love the toque?
|ADDED FUN||Enjoy brunch and play in the tourney (or not)|
reserve for the dining room (204-885-3330) or grab a plate and enjoy the brunch in your
carrel or other table
tournament–either Oct. 31 or Nov. 7–and sign up by 9 p.m. tomorrow. (You have until next
Friday to sign up for the Nov. 7 round.) Entry fee is $25. Prize money is $850 plus points
toward Handicapper of the Year.
Winning starts here
10 ways to survive (thrive?)
It CAN be done
provide an “aha” moment
Lawyer Gerry Spence
“Give yourself permission to win”
8. Remember that betting pools are inflated with “dumb” money from
infrequent players. Consider it your DUTY to capitalize.
to be a winner in the spirit of semi-retired California lawyer
Gerry Spence, 86, who applied “give yourself permission” to jury
addresses, both as a prosecutor and defense attorney, and
never lost a case. (He describes the “give yourself permission”
concept in his 1995 book, How to Argue and Win Every Time.
You might have seen this lawyer with his long hair and buckskin
jacket giving commentary on CNN during the OJ trial.) Say to
yourself: “I give myself permission to do what it takes to be a
winner.” I think you’ll find it empowering.
Just give yourself permission to win!
Let’s raise a glass.
And $1 Million for Charity.
Join Breeders’ Cup and Maker’s Mark® in our goal to raise $1 Million over the next three years to support a variety of deserving local and thoroughbred industry charities. Breeders’ Cup and Maker’s Mark® have collaborated on a limited-edition, five-bottle collection featuring a few of the most legendary champions in Breeders’ Cup history. Each bottle pays tribute with a customized design and signature from each Champion’s connections.
This is an extremely limited offer, as only 500 bottles were made for each Champion. Don’t miss your chance to savor the memories of these past champions while helping the local community.
Through your donation you will be granted access to participate in the exclusive commemorative bottle auction which will take place at Keeneland on Thursday, October 29. This event will be the only opportunity to collect the first three bottles of the series. No reserve will be placed on the bottles up for auction.
Champions for Charity event tickets are required, click here to learn more.
Phil’s Drink and A Flick
You better cut the pizza in four pieces because I’m not hungry enough to eat six.
Phil M Stockmen