We’ve heard the old activist slogan:
If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.
bandied about from all sides of the political spectrum over the years, but in the thoroughbred racing world in 2025 there is a foreboding ring of truth to it.
Don’t be confused by:
If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the precipitate.
Thoroughbred racing has reached the state where we’re afraid to ask the question:
For whom the starting bell tolls
as we don’t want to hear the name of the next soon to be shuttered track.
Business is never so healthy as when, like a chicken, it must do a certain amount of scratching around for what it gets.
Henry Ford
Over the last few weeks Phil has featured numerous articles on the current state of the thoroughbred industry in North America.
Tampa Bay Affirms A Commitment To Live Racing
California Considering Options To Push For Historical Horse Racing
Flatter: It is time for Florida to listen to ignored horseplayers
Ask Joe Anything: How Fast Is The Clock Ticking For Horse Racing In California?
Voss: Racing’s Pushback Limited, Disorganized In First Test Of Florida Decoupling Bill
Suffice it to say that the negative far outweighs the positive.
Sympathy is important, but it rings hollow if not followed by action.
Chris Murphy
Phil did not make a Pick 4 wager on the Risen Star Day card at Fair Grounds on Saturday, February 15, 2025.
If your attitude is So what? Who cares? head on over to Horse Racing Alberta. There looking for people like you.
Samuel Taylor Coleridge
When it comes to wagering budget Phil’s no CAW, but his daily, weekly and annual wagering has been in a steady decline for over a decade and during that decade Phil did not wager on live racing in his home province. He has invited the minions over at Horse Racing Alberta to discuss the reasons for the decline and not betting on Alberta tracks, but has never heard from them as they think they know too much. The invitation is reiterated and remains open.
Fair Grounds is not one of the US tracks that Phil usually wagers on, but when they have an Oaks and Derby qualifier and two Zios in one race Phil’s interest was piqued.
Phil spent a couple of hours handicapping the late P4 at Fair Grounds aided by a bowl of Tomato Bourbon soup and a couple of craft brewery IPAs and came away with a 2 horse (4,8) – 3 horse (2,8,9) – single (2) – 4 horse (1,4,9,13) ticket which fits within the handicapping model that Phil and a couple other bettors devised from a tortured contortion of the Rule of 72 and used successfully for years when betting on Alberta live racing.
When the scratch of Jonathan’s Way from the Risen Star was announced Phil was a tad disappointed as Phil wasn’t including him in his ticket and was sorry to see the chump money leave the pool.
When the stakes scratches of
Anonima (KY)
Simply Joking (PA)
from the Rachel Alexandra were announced Phil said Fuck this, why did I waste my time handicapping when there’s a 4 horse walkover race in the middle of the P4 diminishing the expected return on investment and kept his bills in his shirt.
Hundreds of other bettors must have said the same thing with varying degrees of profanity and Phil’s sure the Fair Grounds handle declined by more than $500K US.
Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot,
Nothing is going to get better. It’s not.
Dr. Seuss
Race 13
$1 WPS / $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Daily Double
Fair Grounds STAKES
Purse $300,000. One And One Sixteenth Miles. For Fillies Three Years Old.
| P# | PP | Horse | VS | A/S | Med | Jockey | Wgt | Trainer | M/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCR | Anonima (KY) | ————————————Scratched————————————- | 6/1 | ||||||
|
2
|
2
|
Good Cheer (KY) |
3/F
|
L Saez |
122
|
B H Cox | 6/5 | ||
| SCR | Ballerina d’Oro (KY) | ————————————Scratched————————————- | 7/2 | ||||||
|
4
|
4
|
Gowells Delight (KY) |
3/F
|
B J Hernandez, Jr. |
122
|
K G McPeek | 12/1 | ||
|
5
|
5
|
Aledean (KY) |
3/F
|
E Morales |
122
|
T M Amoss | 15/1 | ||
| SCR | Simply Joking (PA) | ————————————Scratched————————————- | 4/1 | ||||||
|
7
|
7
|
Bless the Broken (KY) |
3/F
|
A Concepcion |
122
|
W Walden | 12/1 | ||
Anonima (KY)
Simply Joking (PA)
Tough to blame the Fair Grounds racing secretary as if he had known that the second, third and fourth favourites would scratch he would have carded the race as No. 2 or 3 and moved the rest down leaving a very betable P4. Plus he and racing secretaries everywhere have to rely on the trainers and owners who stakes scratch to fill race cards daily. Even Adam Silver hasn’t found a solution to sitting stars.
The trainers and owners know that the starting bell is tolling the death knell of the downward spiral on the slippery slope into oblivion for thoroughbred racing and they spout off about how they’ll work to improve the industry. But when the time comes to show their support for the industry their actions speak with more clarity than their hollow words.
Love And Hate In A Different Time
Better than a thousand hollow words, is one word that brings peace.
Buddha
The reality of current thoroughbred racing is that there is a dire shortage of quality horses that becomes more concentrated the higher up the scale you go. There is no punitive measure one could institute to prevent stakes scratches as today there are numerous opportunities for stakes calibre thoroughbreds and with the foal crop declining the competition for the top horses will increase. What incentive could you offer to prevent stakes scratches. GRADED STAKES WINNER looks much more appealing on a broodmare sales catalogue page than Graded stakes placed behind a really good horse.
The big picture reality is that thoroughbred racing in North America is competing in a tough saturated betting and sports market dominated by professional leagues led by powerful Commissioners, (Gary Bettman and the NHL excepted) who’ll hustle you right off the stage at every opportunity they get. Won’t be long before the NFL takes bids for the Superbowl halftime show. Phil heard a rumour that Drake has a standing offer of $10 Million US for the rights to perform at Superbowl LX in Santa Clara, CA and he says he’ll bring Beyonce’s Levi’s with him.
Phil has a question:
How can thoroughbred racing in North America even think about competing when its owners and trainers don’t bring their best horses out to play on feature race days.
If you think that Phil has a solution to guarantee the trainers and owners will participate in stakes races when they enter; you’re as dead as racing will soon be wrong.
Phil recommends that you enjoy what quality thoroughbred racing that’s offered in North America now as the future although unwritten does not look too rosy.
TDN – Hasslefree Rachel Alexandra Score For Unbeaten Good Cheer
Bloodhorse – Molly Rollins – Good Cheer Doesn’t Miss a Beat in Rachel Alexandra
Rebel – John Battagalia Stops on the Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby LCI
Phil M. Stockmen
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